Mental Models: 30 Thinking Tools that Separate the Average From the Exceptional. Improved Decision-Making, Logical Analysis, and Problem-Solving.

Architect Wernher Von Braun had this to say on the matter: “One good test is worth a thousand expert opinions.

Resistance lies between you and what you want.

una manera de corregir las predicciones a partir de evidencia relevante, lo que también se conoce como probabilidad condicional o probabilidad inversa”.

Parkinson’s Law states that work expands so as to fill the time available for its completion. Whatever deadline you give yourself, big or small, that’s how long you’ll take to complete the work. If you give yourself a relaxed deadline, you avoid being disciplined; if you give yourself a tight deadline, you can draw on your self-discipline. Parkinson observed that as bureaucracies expanded, their efficiency decreased instead of increased. The more space and time people were given, the more they took—something that he realized was applicable to a wide range of other circumstances. The general form of the law became that increasing the size of something decreases its efficiency.

we will probably realize that we need far fewer things than we originally thought and that our desires are masquerading as needs.